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part 2: Carnival Games

(7 points) If you have been to a carnival or fair, you may remember a game where you throw a dart at a wall of balloons to pop them. Here is a similar game:


There are 30 balloons on the wall.
10 of them contain prize tokens.
The player pays 
$2 and gets to throw darts until 2 balloons pop. don't win anything.
Let's find the expected value for this game.
In order to fill in the table below, first complete the tree diagram, using fractions to label the probabilities on each branch and the final probabilities (w).
Now use the probabilities you found to fill in the table and compute the expected value of this game.








Number of


tokens







Probability


(use fractions)




Payout



Value


(payout - $2 cost)







Weighted Value for the


player:


(use decimals, rounded to the


nearest penny)






0


$0




1


$3




2


$4




Total Expected Value (Payout) for the player:




Does the game favor the player or the game-runner? Explain.

part 22: Carnival Games\newline11) (77 points) If you have been to a carnival or fair, you may remember a game where you throw a dart at a wall of balloons to pop them. Here is a similar game:\newline- There are 3030 balloons on the wall.\newline- 1010 of them contain prize tokens.\newline- The player pays $2 \$ 2 and gets to throw darts until 22 balloons pop. don't win anything.\newlineLet's find the expected value for this game.\newlineIn order to fill in the table below, first complete the tree diagram, using fractions to label the probabilities on each branch and the final probabilities (w).\newlineNow use the probabilities you found to fill in the table and compute the expected value of this game.\newline\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|}\newline\hline \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineNumber of \\\newlinetokens\newline\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineProbability \\\newline(use fractions)\newline\end{tabular} & Payout & \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineValue \\\newline(payout - \$\(2\) cost)\(\newline\)\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} \(\newline\)Weighted Value for the \\\(\newline\)player: \\\(\newline\)(use decimals, rounded to the \\\(\newline\)nearest penny)\(\newline\)\end{tabular} \\\(\newline\)\hline \(0\) & & \( \$ 0 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \(1\) & & \( \$ 3 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \(2\) & & \( \$ 4 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \multicolumn{\(5\)}{|c|}{ Total Expected Value (Payout) for the player: } \\\(\newline\)\hline\(\newline\)\end{tabular}\(\newline\)Does the game favor the player or the game-runner? Explain.

Full solution

Q. part 22: Carnival Games\newline11) (77 points) If you have been to a carnival or fair, you may remember a game where you throw a dart at a wall of balloons to pop them. Here is a similar game:\newline- There are 3030 balloons on the wall.\newline- 1010 of them contain prize tokens.\newline- The player pays $2 \$ 2 and gets to throw darts until 22 balloons pop. don't win anything.\newlineLet's find the expected value for this game.\newlineIn order to fill in the table below, first complete the tree diagram, using fractions to label the probabilities on each branch and the final probabilities (w).\newlineNow use the probabilities you found to fill in the table and compute the expected value of this game.\newline\begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|}\newline\hline \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineNumber of \\\newlinetokens\newline\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineProbability \\\newline(use fractions)\newline\end{tabular} & Payout & \begin{tabular}{c} \newlineValue \\\newline(payout - \$\(2\) cost)\(\newline\)\end{tabular} & \begin{tabular}{c} \(\newline\)Weighted Value for the \\\(\newline\)player: \\\(\newline\)(use decimals, rounded to the \\\(\newline\)nearest penny)\(\newline\)\end{tabular} \\\(\newline\)\hline \(0\) & & \( \$ 0 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \(1\) & & \( \$ 3 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \(2\) & & \( \$ 4 \) & & \\\(\newline\)\hline \multicolumn{\(5\)}{|c|}{ Total Expected Value (Payout) for the player: } \\\(\newline\)\hline\(\newline\)\end{tabular}\(\newline\)Does the game favor the player or the game-runner? Explain.
  1. Calculate Probability of Prize Balloon: Step 11: Calculate the probability of popping a balloon with a prize token on the first throw. There are 1010 prize balloons out of 3030 total balloons.
  2. Calculate Probability of Non-Prize Balloon: Step 22: Calculate the probability of popping a balloon without a prize token on the first throw. There are 2020 non-prize balloons out of 3030 total balloons.
  3. Calculate Probability of Prize Balloon on Second Throw: Step 33: Calculate the probability of popping a prize balloon on the second throw, given the first was a prize. After one prize balloon is popped, 99 prize balloons and 2020 non-prize balloons remain.
  4. Calculate Probability of Prize Balloon after Non-Prize Balloon: Step 44: Calculate the probability of popping a prize balloon on the second throw, given the first was not a prize. After one non-prize balloon is popped, 1010 prize balloons and 1919 non-prize balloons remain.
  5. Calculate Probability of Getting Prize Tokens: Step 55: Calculate the probability of getting 00, 11, or 22 prize tokens using the tree diagram probabilities.
  6. Calculate Expected Value: Step 66: Calculate the expected value of the game.

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