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A bag contains 4 blue and 8 green marbles. Three marbles are selected at random from the bag.
a. If the first marble is replaced before the second marble is drawn what is 
P (blue second I green first)? Use the conditional probability formula!
b. If the first marble is NOT replaced what is P(blue second / green first)? Use conditional probability formula!

A bag contains 44 blue and 88 green marbles. Three marbles are selected at random from the bag.\newlinea. If the first marble is replaced before the second marble is drawn what is P \mathrm{P} (blue second I green first)? Use the conditional probability formula!\newlineb. If the first marble is NOT replaced what is P(blue second / green first)? Use conditional probability formula!

Full solution

Q. A bag contains 44 blue and 88 green marbles. Three marbles are selected at random from the bag.\newlinea. If the first marble is replaced before the second marble is drawn what is P \mathrm{P} (blue second I green first)? Use the conditional probability formula!\newlineb. If the first marble is NOT replaced what is P(blue second / green first)? Use conditional probability formula!
  1. Calculate Probability with Replacement: a. Calculate the probability of drawing a blue marble second given that a green marble was drawn first with replacement.\newlineSince the first marble is replaced, the probability of drawing a blue marble remains the same for the second draw.
  2. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}.
  3. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles. The probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}.Using the conditional probability formula P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}, we need to find P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}). Since the first marble is replaced, the events are independent, and P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B). However, since we are given that a green marble is drawn first, P(B)P(B) is certain (P(B)=1P(B) = 1), and thus 8800.
  4. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles. The probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}. Using the conditional probability formula P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}, we need to find P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}). Since the first marble is replaced, the events are independent, and P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B). However, since we are given that a green marble is drawn first, P(B)P(B) is certain (P(B)=1P(B) = 1), and thus 8800. Therefore, P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}) with replacement is simply the probability of drawing a blue marble, which is 13\frac{1}{3} or approximately 8833.
  5. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}.Using the conditional probability formula P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}, we need to find P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}).\newlineSince the first marble is replaced, the events are independent, and P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B).\newlineHowever, since we are given that a green marble is drawn first, P(B)P(B) is certain (P(B)=1P(B) = 1), and thus 8800.Therefore, P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}) with replacement is simply the probability of drawing a blue marble, which is 13\frac{1}{3} or approximately 8833.b. Calculate the probability of drawing a blue marble second given that a green marble was drawn first without replacement.\newlineSince the first marble is not replaced, the total number of marbles decreases by one, and the number of green marbles decreases by one.
  6. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}.Using the conditional probability formula P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}, we need to find P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}).\newlineSince the first marble is replaced, the events are independent, and P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B).\newlineHowever, since we are given that a green marble is drawn first, P(B)P(B) is certain (P(B)=1P(B) = 1), and thus 8800.Therefore, P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}) with replacement is simply the probability of drawing a blue marble, which is 13\frac{1}{3} or approximately 8833.\newlineb. Calculate the probability of drawing a blue marble second given that a green marble was drawn first without replacement.\newlineSince the first marble is not replaced, the total number of marbles decreases by one, and the number of green marbles decreases by one.Now we have 44 blue marbles and 8855 green marbles left, making a total of 8866 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble on the second draw without replacement is now 8877.
  7. Calculate Probability without Replacement: The total number of marbles is 44 blue + 88 green = 1212 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble is the number of blue marbles divided by the total number of marbles, which is 412\frac{4}{12} or 13\frac{1}{3}.Using the conditional probability formula P(AB)=P(A and B)P(B)P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \text{ and } B)}{P(B)}, we need to find P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}).\newlineSince the first marble is replaced, the events are independent, and P(A and B)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B).\newlineHowever, since we are given that a green marble is drawn first, P(B)P(B) is certain (P(B)=1P(B) = 1), and thus 8800.Therefore, P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}) with replacement is simply the probability of drawing a blue marble, which is 13\frac{1}{3} or approximately 8833.\newlineb. Calculate the probability of drawing a blue marble second given that a green marble was drawn first without replacement.\newlineSince the first marble is not replaced, the total number of marbles decreases by one, and the number of green marbles decreases by one.Now we have 44 blue marbles and 8855 green marbles left, making a total of 8866 marbles.\newlineThe probability of drawing a blue marble on the second draw without replacement is now 8877.Therefore, P(blue secondgreen first)P(\text{blue second} | \text{green first}) without replacement is 8877, which is approximately 121200.

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